The Climate Observatory’s Vision

This text is the executive summary of the study The Future of Energy: The Climate Observatory’s Vision for a Just Transition in Brazil, part of the Brazil 2045 Strategy. Therefore, the document outlines a pathway for the country to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. The goal is to make Brazil carbon negative, balancing economic growth with climate responsibility. The study proposes the OC Vision Scenario, in which the national GDP grows on average 2.1% per year until 2050.

During the same period, emissions from the energy sector fall from 490 million to 102 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, representing a reduction of about 80%. Additionally, the publication reinforces the goal to reduce net emissions by 92% by 2035, using 2005 as the baseline year. This means decreasing from 2.44 billion to about 200 million tons of CO₂e. Even if complete decarbonization of the energy sector does not occur, the country can offset residual emissions. To achieve this, it is necessary to preserve biomes and adopt low-carbon agricultural practices. In this way, Brazil can reach net negative emissions by 2045.